Ottawa, ON — Canadian businesses are facing mounting economic uncertainty, and exporters are getting hit the hardest. The latest Business Insights Quarterly from the Canadian Chamber of Commerce’s Business Data Lab (BDL) shows that business confidence remains weak for the third consecutive quarter, with goods exporters now trailing other businesses in optimism.
Goods exporters have consistently been much more optimistic than the broader business community since Q3 2021. However, that trend reversed in late 2024, when rail and port strikes disrupted supply chains and trade policy uncertainty surged. Now, with tariffs increasing and supply chains under renewed strain, exporter confidence remains deeply subdued.
“Our findings underscore the growing headwinds that businesses are facing as trade tensions increase,” said Patrick Gill, Vice President of the Business Data Lab. “Supply chains are strained, tariff-driven price pressures are rising, and businesses — especially exporters — are struggling just to stay afloat. Canada’s economy depends on their success; we can’t afford to let them fail.”
The Big Picture
- Ontario is hurting the most: As Canada’s manufacturing powerhouse, Ontario is the least optimistic province. Sentiment is particularly weak in Southwestern Ontario (Oshawa, London, and Hamilton), where trade-exposed industries are most impacted.
- Tariff-driven price pressures are rising: More businesses now expect to raise prices, marking a reversal after a year of declining price expectations.
- Weak consumer demand is the top concern: For the second consecutive quarter, businesses rank consumer demand as a greater obstacle than labour shortages—a sign of weakening spending and trade uncertainty.
- Supply chain headaches aren’t going away: 40% of goods exporters expect worsening supply chain conditions in the next six months, with many still struggling to secure necessary inputs both domestically and internationally. Last year’s labour disruptions at ports and railways acted as a self-inflicted shock, directly impacting 180,000 businesses and sending ripple effects through Canada’s trade infrastructure, worsening supply chain bottlenecks for exporters.
Despite these challenges, nearly three-quarters (73%) of businesses remain optimistic about the year ahead. But optimism alone won’t fix these problems — businesses need real solutions to navigate today’s unpredictable economic landscape.
Business Truth & Reconciliation